Gerald Ajam

Systems thinking

The way of thinking that explains why the fix did not work. It treats a situation as stocks, flows and feedback, and asks what arrangement of those would produce exactly the result you are complaining about.

All four ways
What it attends to
Wholes and relations
What it is for
Understanding what is

The behaviour comes from the structure, so look at the structure

Systems thinking describes a situation as parts connected by feedback. A result that keeps recurring is read as the output of a structure, not of a person or an event. Its central tools are the loop and the delay: the consequence that comes back to change its own cause, and the effect that arrives too late to inform the decision that caused it. It is strongest on problems that have resisted repeated fixes, and weakest when the structure is not what is actually stuck.

Systems thinking

In ordinary life

The traffic that comes back

A town widens its main road to cure congestion. For a year it works. Then the congestion returns, as bad as before, with more cars on a wider road. Nobody made a mistake in the engineering. The wider road made driving easier, so more people drove, until driving was exactly as slow as it had been.

Systems thinking is the habit of expecting that. Forrester called the behaviour of social systems counterintuitive, because the obvious intervention often feeds the loop that caused the problem. Senge put it more bluntly: today’s problems come from yesterday’s solutions.

Outside work it shows up in small ways. A household that argues about who does the dishes sees a pattern instead of a person. The faster someone cleans up, the less anyone else notices the mess, and the more the cleaning falls to them. Nobody decided that. The arrangement did.

Meadows’ list of leverage points is the practical gift. Numbers and targets are the weakest place to intervene, and the one everyone reaches for first. Rules, information flows and goals are stronger. The mindset the system rests on is stronger still, and hardest to shift.

The educational experience

The timetable that pushes back

Every page follows the same Singapore secondary school on the same kind of day. The school wants to give Secondary 1 one afternoon a week for a project that crosses Geography, Science and English Language, and the proposal is due for a decision. The five people and the situation stay fixed. Only the way of thinking changes.

All five, interconnected

One day 9 beats

The five threads as they were written, interleaved, so the hand-offs between them are visible. Pick a person to follow their day on its own. The people are illustrative, and the same five appear on every way’s page.

06:45

Mdm Kavitha, before the breakfast orders

Mdm Kavitha reads the school’s message about the proposal on the parent app while the oven heats. One afternoon a week, three subjects, one project. Her first question is which periods it replaces. The message does not say.

08:30

Mr Hafiz, with the timetable

The afternoon has to come from somewhere. He takes one period a week each from Geography, Science and English Language, which is fair and pleases nobody. Within the hour the HOD Science emails: the Secondary 1 scheme of work does not fit in fewer periods.

09:40

Ms Chen, Secondary 1 Geography

She notices her own planning has changed. Expecting to lose a period, she has moved the water unit forward and cut the fieldwork sketch. She is protecting her coverage against her own proposal.

10:20

Arjun, in Science

The lesson moves faster than usual. The practical is demonstrated, not done. The laboratory technician set out one apparatus at the front instead of ten on the benches, because the department has started trimming in case the proposal passes. Arjun, who learns by handling things, copies down a result he did not see happen.

14:00

The planning meeting, after the last period

Ms Chen draws a loop on the whiteboard. Taking time from the subjects makes each one protect its coverage, so each asks the project to teach its content too. A project carrying three schemes of work has no room for the open work it was meant for. So it looks thin, and the subjects ask for their time back.

14:25

Mr Hafiz, same meeting

He sees that the timetable sits on the loop too. A department’s periods are how it measures its standing, so a period given up is a loss to win back. He had been looking for a free afternoon. On a timetable where every period is owned, and CCA holds the rest, there is no such thing.

15:30

Dr Ong, at her desk

She reads the proposal against the syllabuses, which list content by subject and level. The checklist she gives schools checks coverage subject by subject. Two other schools started projects like this and quietly dropped them, and for the first time she wonders whether her checklist helped.

18:40

Arjun and Mdm Kavitha, in the kitchen after the last delivery

Mdm Kavitha asks what the project would be. Arjun says it might be designing flood defences for the canal near their block, which is the most he has said about school all week. She had been ready to ask about his Science marks. She asks about the flood defences first.

21:00

Ms Chen, revising the proposal

She rewrites one rule. Each department names two outcomes the project will assess for it, and gets them back as evidence instead of lessons. It might stop the subjects pulling at the afternoon. It might also turn the project into three assessments sharing one room.

Nobody in this day behaved badly. Each department protected its coverage and Mr Hafiz divided the time fairly, and the loop was built out of those reasonable responses. Ms Chen’s change to one rule might weaken it, or might fill the afternoon with three schemes of work by another route. The decision is still due, and nobody can yet say which.

Implications

What this way of thinking does to teaching and learning

The same five dimensions for all four ways. This is the part that can be tabulated. The two narratives above are the part that can be argued with.

What it notices

Patterns over time, and the structures that produce them. A systems thinker hears "we tried that and it made things worse" as data about a feedback loop, not as bad luck. It notices delays, especially the ones between an intervention and its cost, and it notices when a measure has become a target and started changing the behaviour it was meant to observe.

What it cannot see

Individual people, most of the time. A loop diagram abstracts away the student who is the exception, and can make a real injustice look like a neutral structural effect. It is also weak on the moment of action. A good map of the system shows where the leverage points are and says very little about what to do next.

And the boundary is a choice it tends to forget it made. Checkland and Churchman both insist that where you draw the edge of a system decides what the system is. A map of the school that stops at the gate will never find the loop that runs through the family’s evening.

What it asks of teachers and students

Patience with diagrams that look wrong for a while. Students need to learn that an arrow is a claim about causation that can be argued with, and that a loop needs a direction and a sign before it means anything. Teachers need to hold back the explanation long enough for students to find the loop themselves.

Good work draws the loop, names the delay and predicts what a proposed change would do before anyone tries it. Weak work draws everything connected to everything and calls it a system.

Where the values sit

In the boundary and the goal. Deciding what is inside the system and what the system is for are value judgements dressed as modelling decisions. Ulrich’s critical systems heuristics exists to make those choices explicit, by asking who the system serves, who decides and who is affected but not involved.

How it gets hollowed out

The hollow version is the loop poster: a diagram drawn once at a retreat, admired for its complexity and never used to predict anything. It treats "it’s complex" as a conclusion instead of the start of an analysis. Meadows would say a map is only worth drawing if it finds the few places where a small change shifts the pattern.

Reading

Where it comes from

Published works only. Start with the first on the list.

  • Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green.

    Stocks, flows, feedback and the leverage points. The best single introduction.

  • Forrester, J. W. (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review, 73(3), 52–68.

    Why the obvious intervention in a social system so often makes things worse.

  • Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Doubleday.

    Systems thinking brought into organisations, with the archetypes that recur in schools.

  • Checkland, P. (1981). Systems Thinking, Systems Practice. Wiley.

    Soft systems methodology. Systems as ways of seeing a situation, and the boundary as a choice.

  • Churchman, C. W. (1968). The Systems Approach. Delacorte.

    The argument that every system boundary carries a judgement about who and what counts.

Compare it with the other three
Singapore