Seven contributions, one arc
Seven things complexity thinking adds that no neighbouring way of thinking does. Each is a shift in what an analysis attends to, and each adds one question. Together they run as an arc, from what exists to what we owe.
The seven run in order, from what exists to what we owe. The first two read the situation. The middle two read the reader. The last three are about acting. Each one adds a question no neighbouring way of thinking asks, and each can be hollowed out into a slogan.
The seven
One question each
Every page follows the same Singapore secondary school through the same semester, Term 1 and Term 2. The school is changing how it assesses, both of learning and for it: fewer weighted assessments, more feedback, and ratings that are meant to say something. The five people and the events of the semester stay fixed. Only the contribution reading them changes.
Relations before things
What relationships are we not seeing, and which could change the result?
From components to interactionsDispositions before predictions
What is this situation already inclined to do?
From forecast to propensityPlural models before the right model
What would other credible models say, and what survives across them?
From one model to many partial onesThe analyst inside
How will our framing, metrics and moves change what we observe?
From observer to participantConditions before outcomes
What conditions make good outcomes likelier, and what can we safely try?
From blueprint to enabling constraints and probesOptionality before optimisation
Which options are we spending, and which commitments are irreversible?
From efficiency to adaptive capacityResponsibility for framing
Who and what is outside our frame, and who bears its costs?
From neutral analysis to accountable boundariesSide by side
The shift each one asks for
Read across a row for one contribution. Read down the last column to see which of the strand’s four moves carries it.
| Contribution | Stage | The shift | The question it adds | Carried by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Relations before things | What exists | From components to interactions | What relationships are we not seeing, and which could change the result? | Reading the disposition |
| 2. Dispositions before predictions | How it moves | From forecast to propensity | What is this situation already inclined to do? | Reading the disposition |
| 3. Plural models before the right model | How we know | From one model to many partial ones | What would other credible models say, and what survives across them? | Holding the frame lightly |
| 4. The analyst inside | Where we stand | From observer to participant | How will our framing, metrics and moves change what we observe? | Holding the frame lightly |
| 5. Conditions before outcomes | How we act | From blueprint to enabling constraints and probes | What conditions make good outcomes likelier, and what can we safely try? | Probing with options open |
| 6. Optionality before optimisation | How we hold the future | From efficiency to adaptive capacity | Which options are we spending, and which commitments are irreversible? | Probing with options open |
| 7. Responsibility for framing | What we owe | From neutral analysis to accountable boundaries | Who and what is outside our frame, and who bears its costs? | Holding the frame lightly |