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Futures of education glossary

30 terms from C24, Futures of education — each defined in the primer's own words. Every term the primer teaches links to the slide that teaches it.

The whole context glossary

C24 · Evidence and change

Futures of education

“The future of education is a technology forecast.”

Every term below is defined in the words of futures of education, primer C24 of understanding the context of education, and opens the primer at the slide where it is taught. 1 term is also defined by another primer in the series; where the two differ, both wordings are given. The whole context glossary holds all of them together.

TermDefinitionReferred to inRead further
A
AI and the purpose of schooling

The question, reopened by generative models, of what schooling is for when answers are cheap to produce. It is a question about aims, treated in primer C01, rather than a question about any particular tool.

  • Bastani, H., Bastani, O., Sungu, A., Ge, H., Kabakcı, Ö., & Mariman, R. (2025). Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning: Evidence from high school mathematics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122(26), e2422633122. doi
  • International Commission on the Futures of Education. (2021). Reimagining our futures together: A new social contract for education. UNESCO. doi
Anticipatory governance

Guston’s (2014) term for “a broad-based capacity extended through society” to manage emerging technologies while management is still possible, built from foresight, public engagement and integration into decisions.

  • Guston, D. H. (2014). Understanding “anticipatory governance”. Social Studies of Science, 44(2), 218–242. doi
Automation and work

The displacement and reshaping of tasks by machines. For education its importance is indirect: it changes what qualifications are worth, how often adults must retrain, and which skills schools are asked to guarantee.

  • Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279–1333. doi
  • Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. doi
B
Backcasting

Starting from a chosen future, desired or feared, and working backwards to the steps that would connect it to the present. It is used to overcome present bias in planning (Government Office for Science, 2024).

  • Government Office for Science. (2024). The futures toolkit: Tools for futures thinking and foresight across UK government (Edition 2). assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Robinson, J. B. (1990). Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures, 22(8), 820–842. doi
Black swan

A rare, high-impact event that was not anticipated and is rationalised afterwards. Singapore’s Centre for Strategic Futures names identifying them as one reason it exists (Centre for Strategic Futures, 2026a).

  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026a). Who we are. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026b). Our approach. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
  • Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
C
Causal layered analysis

A method that reads an issue at four levels: the litany, the systemic causes, the worldview and the underlying myth or metaphor (Inayatullah, 1998).

  • Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method. Futures, 30(8), 815–829. doi
  • Inayatullah, S. (2017). Causal layered analysis: A four-level approach to alternative futures. In Prospective and strategic foresight toolbox. Futuribles International. metafuture.org
Co-agency

The OECD’s term for agency exercised with others: students are “surrounded by their peers, teachers, families and communities, all of whom interact with and guide the student towards well-being” (OECD, 2019). Primer C01 covers it.

  • OECD. (2019). OECD Learning Compass 2030 [Concept note, OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030]. oecd.org
D
Deschooling

Illich’s (1971) argument that universal education cannot be delivered through schooling, and that “educational webs” should replace institutional funnels. Used today as shorthand for any serious case that schooling is not the only form education can take.

  • Illich, I. (1971). Deschooling society. Harper & Row.
  • Reich, J. (2020). Failure to disrupt: Why technology alone can’t transform education. Harvard University Press.
Drivers of change

The forces that move the issue being studied, sorted in practice by how certain they are and how far the user can influence them. Sorting them is the step that turns a scan into a scenario.

  • Government Office for Science. (2024). The futures toolkit: Tools for futures thinking and foresight across UK government (Edition 2). assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
E
Education for sustainable development

UNESCO’s programme of education that “empowers people with the knowledge, skills, values, attitudes and behaviors to live in a way that is good for the environment, economy, and society” (UNESCO, n.d.-b).

  • UNESCO. (n.d.-b). Education for sustainable development. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from unesco.org
  • International Commission on the Futures of Education. (2021). Reimagining our futures together: A new social contract for education. UNESCO. doi
F
Foresight

The structured consideration of ideas about the future in order to make better decisions in the present. It assumes prediction is limited and works with several futures at once (OECD, 2020).

  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
  • Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. doi
  • Government Office for Science. (2024). The futures toolkit: Tools for futures thinking and foresight across UK government (Edition 2). assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
Futures literacy

UNESCO’s term for the capability of using images of the future well: “the skill that allows people to better understand the role of the future in what they see and do” (UNESCO, n.d.-a; Miller, 2018).

  • Miller, R. (Ed.). (2018). Transforming the future: Anticipation in the 21st century. Routledge. doi
  • UNESCO. (n.d.-a). Futures literacy: An essential competency for the 21st century. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from unesco.org
Futures thinking

The general habit of treating the future as plural and partly open, rather than as a single extrapolation of the present. Foresight is its disciplined form.

  • Dator, J. (2009). Alternative futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 1–18. jfsdigital.org
  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
  • Facer, K. (2011). Learning futures: Education, technology and social change. Routledge. doi
H
Horizon scanning

“The systematic collection of insights on emerging trends and weak signals of change to identify potential threats, risks and opportunities” (Government Office for Science, 2024).

  • Government Office for Science. (2024). The futures toolkit: Tools for futures thinking and foresight across UK government (Edition 2). assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026b). Our approach. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
Human-centred AI

Design and policy that treat artificial intelligence as subordinate to human judgement, rights and agency. UNESCO makes “a human-centred mindset” the first dimension of both its AI competency frameworks (Miao, Shiohira, & Lao, 2024).

  • Miao, F., Shiohira, K., & Lao, N. (2024). AI competency framework for students. UNESCO. unesco.org
  • Miao, F., & Cukurova, M. (2024). AI competency framework for teachers. UNESCO. unesco.org
L
Learning ecosystems

A way of describing provision as a connected set of settings — schools, families, workplaces, libraries, online communities — rather than as one institution. The OECD’s “schools as learning hubs” scenario is one version of it.

C16 A way of describing the whole set of places a person can learn — institutions, employers, platforms, libraries, communities — and the connections between them. Useful as a framing; rarely operationalised well enough to be measured.

  • OECD. (2019). Getting skills right: Future-ready adult learning systems. OECD Publishing. doi
  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
  • OECD. (2001). What schools for the future? OECD Publishing. doi
Lifelong learning societies

Societies organised so that learning continues across the whole life course, with funding, time and recognition to match. Ageing populations make this a practical question rather than a slogan. Primer C16 covers it.

  • National Population and Talent Division. (2025). Population in brief 2025. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. population.gov.sg
  • International Commission on the Futures of Education. (2021). Reimagining our futures together: A new social contract for education. UNESCO. doi
M
Megatrends

Large, slow forces that shape many domains at once, such as ageing, urbanisation or digitalisation. They are the background against which weak signals are read.

  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
  • United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2024). World population prospects 2024: Summary of results (UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO. 9). population.un.org
N
New social contract for education

UNESCO's call for an education "that can repair injustices while transforming the future", grounded in the right to education throughout life and education as a common good (International Commission on the Futures of Education, 2021).

  • International Commission on the Futures of Education. (2021). Reimagining our futures together: A new social contract for education. UNESCO. doi
O
OECD scenarios for schooling

Four alternative futures for 2040: schooling extended, education outsourced, schools as learning hubs, and learn-as-you-go. None is a prediction, and ranking them by probability wastes the exercise (OECD, 2020).

  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
  • OECD. (2001). What schools for the future? OECD Publishing. doi
P
Possible, plausible, probable and preferred futures

The four claims a statement about the future can make: it might happen, it could happen given how the world works, it is likely on current trends, or it ought to happen. The classes nest (Voros, 2003, 2017).

  • Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. doi
  • Hancock, T., & Bezold, C. (1994). Possible futures, preferable futures. Healthcare Forum Journal, 37(2), 23–29.
  • Voros, J. (2017, February 24). The futures cone, use and history [Blog post]. The Voroscope. thevoroscope.com
S
Scenario

A fictional, internally coherent account of one future, written to be thought with. The OECD (2020) insists scenarios “never contain predictions or recommendations”.

  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
  • Ramírez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford University Press. doi
  • Dator, J. (2009). Alternative futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 1–18. jfsdigital.org
Scenario Planning Plus

The Centre for Strategic Futures' approach, which "retains Scenario Planning as its core but taps on a broader suite of tools" suited to weak signals, black swans and wild cards (Centre for Strategic Futures, 2026b).

  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026b). Our approach. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026a). Who we are. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
T
Techno-solutionism

The habit of answering structural problems with a product. A system can adopt every tool available and leave the distribution of teachers, money and time exactly as it was.

  • Reich, J. (2020). Failure to disrupt: Why technology alone can’t transform education. Harvard University Press.
  • OECD. (2015). Students, computers and learning: Making the connection. OECD Publishing. doi
  • Morozov, E. (2013). To save everything, click here: The folly of technological solutionism. PublicAffairs.
Three Horizons

A framework that separates the pattern that currently dominates and is losing its fit (H1), the turbulent innovations tried in response (H2), and the emerging pattern growing at the fringe (H3) (Sharpe et al., 2016).

  • Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016). Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), Article 47. doi
Transformative competencies

The OECD’s (2019) name for creating new value, taking responsibility, and reconciling conflicts, tensions and dilemmas — the competencies its Learning Compass says learners need to shape a changing world.

  • OECD. (2019). OECD Learning Compass 2030 [Concept note, OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030]. oecd.org
U
UNESCO AI competency frameworks

Two 2024 frameworks: 12 competencies for students and 15 for teachers, treating ethics and a human-centred view as competencies in their own right (Miao & Cukurova, 2024; Miao, Shiohira, & Lao, 2024).

  • Miao, F., Shiohira, K., & Lao, N. (2024). AI competency framework for students. UNESCO. unesco.org
  • Miao, F., & Cukurova, M. (2024). AI competency framework for teachers. UNESCO. unesco.org
W
Weak signals

Small, early indications that something may be shifting, visible before a trend is established. Most turn out to be nothing, which is why they are gathered in quantity rather than judged one at a time.

  • Government Office for Science. (2024). The futures toolkit: Tools for futures thinking and foresight across UK government (Edition 2). assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026b). Our approach. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
Wild cards

Low-likelihood events with very large effects. Foresight treats them as worth rehearsing precisely because they cannot be forecast.

  • Centre for Strategic Futures. (2026b). Our approach. Strategy Group, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore. Retrieved September 18, 2026, from csf.gov.sg
Wind-tunnelling

Also called policy stress-testing: running an existing plan, policy or product through each of a set of scenarios to see where it holds, where it needs work and where it fails (Government Office for Science, 2024).

  • Government Office for Science. (2024). The futures toolkit: Tools for futures thinking and foresight across UK government (Edition 2). assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • OECD. (2020). Back to the future of education: Four OECD scenarios for schooling. OECD Publishing. doi
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